GCAP GOLD has indicated that the gold market is poised for significant swings, urging investors to watch two key factors: progress in US–Iran negotiations and the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls figures, which will set the direction for the dollar and the fate of Fed interest rates. The firm's analysis team recommends keeping a close eye on the critical support zone at $4,160 and avoiding chasing prices during sharp upward moves.
Ms. Areerat Murachai, Head Analyst at GCAP Co., Ltd., or GCAP GOLD, revealed that gold prices in the near term are likely to experience high volatility, and she recommended watching two main factors that will determine the direction of prices:
- Progress in political negotiations between the United States and Iran: A geopolitical factor that directly affects oil prices and the holding of safe-haven assets.
- The release of US labor market figures: An indicator guiding the direction of the US dollar, government bond yields, and the monetary policy outlook of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed).
Tensions in the Middle East have temporarily eased following President Trump's suspension of plans to strike Iran in order to allow negotiations to continue. The United States has most recently disclosed that the US and Iran may reach an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz within this week. Such progress helps ease concerns over energy supply and inflationary pressure, which could serve as a short-term supportive factor for gold prices.
"The Strait of Hormuz remains a strategically significant chokepoint watched by the entire world, as it serves as the transit route for one-fifth of the world's oil. If negotiations succeed and full shipping passage is opened, it will help relieve pressure on energy prices and inflation. Nevertheless, Iran's continued non-acceptance of the terms means the situation remains highly uncertain and could change at any moment."
At the same time, what global investors must watch is the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls figures this Friday. The market expects that July will show an increase of approximately 85,000 positions, up from 57,000 positions in June 2026, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. If the figures come in as expected or better than expected, the Fed may press ahead with a tightening monetary policy, the dollar would strengthen, and gold prices would face pressure to pull back — representing an opportunity to wait and accumulate. However, should the figures come in below expectations, pressure for an interest rate hike would diminish further, which would be a supportive factor allowing gold prices to continue their recovery.
The analysis team has assessed a strategy of "waiting to buy on pullbacks near support levels" while avoiding chasing purchases during periods of sharp price increases, given that gold prices have just broken out of a sideways range, causing short-term movements to be swift and highly volatile. Key support is assessed at $4,160–$4,120, or approximately 64,800–64,500 baht for Thai gold, which is the zone where prices have a chance to pull back and retest following the breakout. Key resistance, meanwhile, stands at $4,330–$4,365, or approximately 67,300–67,800 baht. If prices pull back but manage to hold above the support level, there is a chance of another recovery. However, if the $4,120 level is broken, investors should slow down on buying and wait to assess the next support level in order to reduce the risk from selling pressure that may increase.
